I know that this is my second blog this week about the positive aspects of this real estate market, but I am excited to read thoughtful and rational articles for a change in the national media. Those of us that are in it, have a different perspective from those who “report it”. Today’s Washington Post article by Kenneth Harney - Bits of Bad News Obscure A Big Truth About Wealth - echoes what most people in the business have been saying for over a year - yes, there has been an adjustment in home prices downward in the last year or so, but one has to be mindful that this pales next to the huge increase in the previous years. Harney begins his article - “With the daily bad news about the state of the housing market, it’s easy to lose sight of some larger economic realities: Despite declining prices in many markets, homeowners still control near-record equity holdings, just under $11 trillion.” He goes on to say, “The second-quarter equity number was down about $6 billion from the first quarter of the year but was $48 billion more than it was at the end of 2006.” The numbers are large to be sure, but the proportions are not. As Harney continues, “in an $11 trillion marketplace, a $6 billion giveback in a cyclical correction is not a cause for panic.” In fact, it is extremely small .0005%. According to Standard & Poor’s Case/Schiller Home Index home prices in the Washngton DC area have more than doubled (over 100% increase) between 2001 and 2006, then dropped back 4.2% by August of 2007. Some areas are already showing price gains, but what if a housing market continues to show weakness, Harney is saying, “even 10 percent and larger average price drops in once-booming areas…have left owners with most of their paper gains intact.” If one focuses on the last year or so (as much of the media analysis has been), yes - the market does not present a pretty picture, but in the larger context, it is looking pretty darn good. In fact, from 1997-2007, housing has beat stocks & bonds with an annual investment return of 10.93% (way ahead) and a volitility ranking of 2.07% (far lower). Harney concludes his article with - “The housing-price correction cycle continues in many — not all — parts of the country. It is sobering or painful for just about everybody except buyers. But in the absence of a recession or major capital-market crisis, the fact is that most homeowners’ equity stakes are intact, or even growing.”
I believe that Mr. Harney has peeled away the bitter rind of speculation to which we are constantly exposed, inviting us to look into our own experience objectively with regard to the real estate market and assess if we are better off then when were before. Think about it….if you purchased a DC area home in 2001 for $400,000 by investing $80,000 (20% down) and that house was then worth $800,000 in 2006, you made $320,000 on your original investment (not to mention the thousands in tax savings). What other market venue can make that kind of magic happen. If in 2007, your house is worth $720,000, then you made $240,000 over 6 years. The fact is a homeowner can expect substantial growth in their home investment, but it is a long term investment.
The challenge for a seller is to appreciate the real estate market for what it is. He can still make a significant profit on the sale of his property, while being realistic about pricing, and then go on to purchase his next home benefiting from the low interest rates and large inventory.
The challenge for a buyer is to recognize that now is the time to invest in a home. It is a target rich environment, interest rates are historically low and many home sellers are pricing their properties attractively.
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